Russia: Strategic Interests

With the recent declaration of independence of Kosovo, Russia still seems to have its own tensions at a high level. The government has changed its focus to that of Georgian interests, namely Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Both are break away regions of Georgia and Russian has expressed many times an interest in gaining their territory. Here's an excerpt from an article:

Ex-Soviet Georgia urged the international community on Thursday to take steps to prevent Russia's "de facto annexation" of its rebel regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia."The Russian Federation has made yet another extremely dangerous step towards the de facto annexation of integral parts of Georgia's internationally recognised territory," Georgia's foreign ministry said in a statement. The statement appealed to the United Nations, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe, NATO, the Commonwealth of Independent States and the "entire international community" to "use all means at their disposal to stop this process of violation of Georgia's state integrity launched by Russia."

The move by Russia is significant because it may lead to a slow shift in power within the region. By slowly regaining strategic pieces of territory Russia would also gain all the economic benefits that go with them. Looking at this politically there is going to most likely be a continuing clash between western ideals and that of Russia's. I think this will most likely be a long term problem that may lead into a crisis down the road. For now Georgia is working with the international community, which is a good idea, to try and curve Russia's interest. Eventually though in the future Georgia will need to gain the help of bigger international actors if it wishes to buck heads with a re-emerging power.

Pakistan: Terrorism

An article highlights a recent terrorist act:

Pakistan’s ambassador to Afghanistan, who was abducted in Pakistan two months ago, has appeared on a video that was shown on Pakistani television on Saturday saying he was being held by Pakistani Taliban militants and calling on his government to meet their demands. The ambassador, Tariq Azizuddin, was shown in the video sitting in a rugged mountain setting beside his driver and his personal guard, both of whom had been abducted with him. Three masked gunmen stood behind them. Mr. Azizuddin called on Pakistan’s foreign secretary, two friends who are Pakistan’s ambassadors to Iran and China, and his brother, Tahir Azizuddin, to do all they could to meet the demands of the Taliban.

I think this development is pretty interesting when looking into Pakistan's security. The capture of this individual illustrates a significant weakness in internal security protocol. This capture is a large setback for the Pakistani government. What will be important to watch now is exactly how the government will deal with the terrorist demands. With a much more key figure in the terrorist's possession the government may be forced to concede in some manner. It is unfortunate that the individual was captured however this may lead to a much needed security boost in Pakistan. Several terrorist groups seem to be able to operate efficiently and find easy ways to bomb various targets in the region. This may be a key signal to the Pakistani government that some type of hard action must be taken to finally quell the ever expanding reach of various terrorist cells.

Kofi Annan: Calling for Prosecution

Kofi Annan helped to work a deal with the Kenyan government as it fell into disarray earlier this year. An article covers the situation:

Kenyan authorities should prosecute militias implicated in the country's devastating postelection violence, but also address any "genuine grievances" they may have, former U.N. leader Kofi Annan said Saturday. Annan, speaking in an interview with The Associated Press, also said he was confident the power-sharing deal he brokered between President Mwai Kibaki and new Prime Minister Raila Odinga would hold. The deal includes a commitment to disband and demobilize Kenya's militias, many of which were blamed for the weeks of violence following December's disputed elections.

I think Mr. Annan is completely right for calling out these various militias that cause significant problems to the internal security of Kenya. These groups do need to be rounded up so the civilian workforce can return to normalcy. I think Kenya faces a large internal security situation in regards to the armed groups that run rampant through the territory. Kofi Annan makes a point that this government will hopefully listen to. Without controlling the groups that cause significant problems to the infrastructure of Kenya the country will never be able to handle an internal security problem and will once again need help from the international community when a crisis develops.

Hamas: Peace talks

Very recently former President Jimmy Carter went to meet with various Hamas leaders. His idea was to try to create peace talks between Hamas and Israel. Hamas has been declared by many countries as a terrorist organization and has orchestrated many attacks within Israel. An article discusses his visit:

"Defying U.S. and Israeli warnings, former President Carter met again on Saturday with the exiled leader of the militant Hamas group and his deputy. The two Palestinians are considered terrorists by the U.S. government and Israel
accuses them of masterminding attacks that have killed hundreds of civilians. Both governments have sharply criticized Carter's overtures to the militant group.Carter met Mashaal and his deputy, Moussa Abu Marzouk, for about an hour Saturday morning, after more than four hours of talks the night before.Carter, on what he has called a personal peace mission, is the most prominent American to hold talks with Mashaal, whose group claimed new legitimacy from the meetings with the Nobel laureate."

While Carter may contribute to the overall peace efforts to ease tensions between Israel and Hamas, I don't think his visit caused any positive results. With his presence with Hamas leaders we do see that he is trying to garner some kind of peace between them. However I think he is more than anything making himself a significant security risk. If Hamas was able to threaten Carter in any way that could work to heavily undermine his whole visit. I think the situation is most likely under control but I think the trip was unnecessary and worked more towards media attention rather than finding actually peace. While his trip was abmirable, the leaders of Israel and Hamas need to work together rather than through ex-presidents of other countries.

Zimbabwe: Crisis Looms

Recently elections that occured in Zimbabwe have turned out to be the cause for a possible crisis. An article highlights the situation:

"Zimbabwe’s election officials, at the government’s behest, began a partial recount on Saturday of disputed election results, while a human rights group accused members of the ruling party of running “torture camps” to punish opposition supporters."

While the international community has been watching this situation for quite sometime tensions are now actually beginning to cause violence on a wider scale. The article also highlights some history of the president that had run the country for two decades.

"Zimbabwe has been swallowed by fear and uncertainty since the election. The leading opposition party, the Movement for Democratic Change, appeared to get
the better of Robert Mugabe, 84, the liberation hero who has ruled this country since independence in 1980. Mr. Mugabe has presided over the collapse of the economy, which is racked by corruption, shortages and a yearly inflation rate of more than 150,000 percent."

With a change in leadership we can see how this is causing such a significant stir in the populace. While a change may be needed I think this change may lead to further violence within the populace and may spread to other surrounding nations. We can see some heightened tensions pointed out by the article:

"Also on Saturday, a cabinet minister in Mozambique said a Chinese ship carrying arms to Zimbabwe was heading to Angola in hopes of docking there after being turned way from South Africa, according to Reuters. The ship left South African waters on riday after a court refused to allow the weapons to be transported across the country; an Anglican archbishop had appealed to the court to bar the arms shipment for fear the weapons would be used against Zimbabweans."

The best way to help the situation is to allow some international actors to work with the Zimbabwe government. This situation may potentially lead to worse problems for the people of Zimbabwe as they continue to struggle with internal issues.

Russia: Putin's Chess Match

For quite some time the world has been interested in what President Putin of Russia will do to continue a grasp of power within Russia. Several theories have been construed mostly linking Mr. Putin to hold some control of politics behind the curtain. Recently the president announced he would accept a political position and as many thought, the position of course may lead to the control of many internal moves for the country. An article highlights the situation:

"Putin agreed Tuesday to lead United Russia after a party congress elected him as its chairman, three weeks before he hands over the presidency to his successor, Dmitry Medvedev. As leader of United Russia, which controls the State Duma (the lower house of parliament), Putin will be able to determine the main parameters of Russia's development, said Martin Shakkum, chairman of the Committee on Construction and Land Relations in the State Duma. With his new role, Putin "becomes de jure national leader of the country," he said. Yevgeny Fedorov, chairman of the Committee on Economic Policy and Business Activities in the State Duma, said Putin's party leadership will ensure the stability of Russia's political system and the enforcement of the country's strategic national plans. "

Through his most recent move by Putin we see can see how the political leader will be able to continue and implement various political moves throughout Russia and have the ability to construe relations with other state actors. Another article significantly highlights the critical parts of his new role:

"Putin is planning on moving into the position of Russian prime minister May 8, the day after he leaves the presidency. As head of the party that controls the majority of parliament...Putin will keep his hold over the government and its many functions. It also will allow Putin to keep Medvedev in check, since legally parliament can override any presidential decision with a two-thirds majority, the same number of seats United Russia holds."

Also recently news broke internationally about energy deals that Mr. Putin is trying to secure with the country Libya. Here is an excerpt from an article:

"Russian President Vladimir Putin begins a 24-hour visit to Tripoli Wednesday for high-priority talks with Libyan leader Moamer Gaddafi on energy contracts and arms sales. Moscow intends to make Tripoli its 'strategic ally' in North Africa...Moscow seeks a future stake in Libya's highly promising oil sector and aims to revive lucrative Soviet-era arms sales."

The interesting aspect of this is that Putin is obviously setting up ties with international actors which may contribute to helping his positions later down the road. While making new deals with leaders he garners further support in the future. I don't think anyone is surprised in the position Putin has taken but we can now see how this will effect international relations abroad. Opinions and decisions by the new president will most likely have a heavy influence from Putin. The world can expect to see movement by the new president to be in reflection of how Putin smartly moves his political pieces.

Afghanistan: France steps up to the plate

France has declared that they will send several hundred troops to Afghanistan to support various missions. The Taliban have voiced their objection to the deployment of course claiming the French have broken a deal. An article covers the situation:

"The Taliban's leadership council has accused French President Nicolas Sarkozy of breaking a campaign promise by pledging this week to send 700 more French troops to Afghanistan.In a statement Saturday, the Taliban said it freed two kidnapped French nationals based on Mr. Sarkozy's earlier promise to withdraw French troops from Afghanistan."

First off I wonder of course why France would be listening to the Taliban when they are in fact the enemy. The international community cannot step down when we face an enemy like this. There are always going to be prisoners of war and that is a difficult aspect of life but if we can't work together as a international team what do we hope to accomplish. I think this has been a good development by the French to put themselves back into the fight. The world needs to learn to work as a global team and finish the battles that they become involved in. Terrorism is in a fact something the world must work to defeat and the international community has recognized that Afghanistan is a critical location that must be dealt with. I think the global community should learn from these wars so that in the future we can work as a fully integrated international group. It's time that the world began to look at the community they live in and belong to.

China: Tibetan Shadows

With the coming Olympics in China the world has been keeping a close eye on the internal issues that China continuously brings up. Pollution has been a large issue and has sparked a lot of uneasiness with the international community. There is a bigger issue though that has continued for some time that of the Tibetan protests. An article covers some new information,

It was 1997, and about 50 Communist Party workers had come to his monastery to conduct what is called a "patriotic education" campaign... and a requirement that all monks sign a document accepting Chinese rule in Tibet and rejecting the Dalai Lama as a "separatist." For many followers, that amounts to painful renunciation of their religion's central figure. "It was not our wish, not our thought, but we don't have hoices," Arjia said. "We have fear." Such campaigns are now a standard feature of life in Tibetan monasteries and nunneries. They are one of many tools Chinese leaders use to tighten party control of a religion whose charismatic leader, the 72-year-old Dalai Lama, is revered in Tibet, respected around the world and viewed in Beijing as a threat to the party's supremacy."

I didn't know that China practiced such campaigns against its internal populace and I find it surprisingly no one has taken much notice. Looking into the political fallout I think this kind of story would be disastrous publicity for China. It doesn't seem like China has hardly any negative feedback though from the international community. China somehow manages to keep a pretty tight lid on these kinds of developments. I think with this type of information coming out that China's internal security is slightly falling apart and that it seems to control that security through "education campaigns" should be significant news for the future. Perhaps it is time some international voice came out to denounce the actions that China is taking.

Zimbabwe: Crisis on the horizon

Recent problems have risen in Zimbabwe with elections falling apart and causing the populace to stir up. An article covers some highlights:

"Zimbabwean President Robert Mugabe's party has asked electoral officials to delay the results of the presidential poll and to recount votes, reports say. On Saturday, the opposition accused President Mugabe of "preparing a war." Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) leader Morgan Tsvangirai warned that "militants are being rehabilitated" and troops deployed ahead of a possible second round run-off in the presidential poll, which he insists he won."

I think this issue is pretty interesting since we are seeing the potential for disaster coming up. With a potential small war boiling up within the country it is most likely a wise time for international leadership to step in and voice some opinion and take some kind of action. This seems to be a reoccuring issue with countries falling into dismay over elections that usually become corrupted in some manner. Hopefully both parties can work together without involving arms. I think this election issue has the potential to have an extremely bad outcome and will be something the international community should keep a very close eye on.

Somalia in Trouble

Lately several diplomats have criticized an attack from the United States into Somalia. An article covers the situation:

“Thousands have been killed in Somalia in the past year, mostly in skirmishes between the Somali government and Ethiopian troops…the death toll rose this week when at least one American missile…obliterated a shack in a village.”

Several diplomats that keep track of Somalia think that the United States is causing more problems by targeting terrorists in the country. I think the situation in Somalia though has forced the international community to react. The US is conducting a war against terrorism and taking out terrorist leaders in Somalia should benefit that government as well. Many worry if attacks from the US or other countries result in civilian casualties it will only work towards the propaganda of terrorist cells. Perhaps the best solution may need to incorporate the leaders of the African Union and that of Western leaders as well. Together they could possibly work out some kind of joint operation that could be conducted against various terrorist cells. As terrorism continues to spread around the world we can only work together to stop ideologies that threaten our global society.

Elusive peace

Attacks pitting Israel and Hamas continue to happen on almost a daily basis. Hamas has been known for continuing to fire rockets into Israel cities hoping to strike some target of value. Fighting picked up again early this month an article covers the situation:

“The latest round of fighting in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, he Palestinian Islamist movement, showed how mere chance can make events spin out of control…they might have subsided again had one of the usually inaccurate homemade rockets not struck and killed an Israeli…the response of Israel, which has been frustrated by its inability to stop the rockets, was an aerial and ground assault that killed at least 110 Palestinians over five days.”

This seems to be a never ending conflict as these two actors continue to strike out at each other. I think it is interesting that a technologically superior force cannot stop the smaller guerrilla force of Hamas. The only solution to this never-ending issue will have to be solved politically. Perhaps leaders of Israel and Hamas need to come together finally and make some concessions. This could be done with the help of various international actors as well to keep the talks under control. I don’t think Hamas is a force that can be simply destroyed because that force is comprised of the populace. I think it is time for these political actors to come together and finally come to some kind of agreement before the region completely falls apart.

Conflicting Interests

Recently we witnessed how Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s president reacted to air strikes conducted by Colombian aircraft on rebel camps located in Ecuador. As tensions rise and fall between the countries it is interesting to analyze the situation. An article from the economist gives us a small overview:

“On few, if any, other occasions has a head of state issued detailed orders for military mobilization as jauntily as if he were ordering pizza, and on live television. That is what Hugo Chavez, Venezuela’s president did on March 2nd, after Colombian forces bombed a camp just inside Ecuador, killing Raul Reyes, a senior commander of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Columbia (FARC) guerrillas.”

The question to think about is whether Colombian officials were wrong to launch attacks into another countries’ territory. I can see why Colombian felt the need to attack and kill this key FARC leader but they may have caused more trouble than they needed. I think all countries should have their own borders respected to a certain degree. As a global community we cannot simply attack targets in other areas without some kind of permission or at least a justification based on a global consensus. I think Columbia had a legitimate reason to attack but I think they should have had permission first. We saw how the countries around Columbia reacted with mobilizations and this obviously points out that it may have not been the right way to act. Of course FARC is an organization that should be stopped but we need to work together through multilateral relations rather than charging in alone.

Sudan and Chad: Peace Deal?

Conflict between these two countries has been ongoing for several years. An article highlights the most recent development,

"The presidents of Chad and Sudan have signed an accord in Senegal aimed at halting five years of hostilities between the two countries. Chad's Idriss Deby and Sudan's Omar al-Bashir agreed to implement past failed peace pacts at a Dakar summit."

As these rebel groups work autonomously, I severely doubt this peace agreement will do much for this conflict other than to raise allegations. Either side already continues to accuse the other of authorizing various border crossings.

I do think this agreement may be a small step in the right direction, but these sides need to focus on quelling the numerous rebel groups working throughout the region. International organizations have stepped in to protect some of the civilains, but maybe it is time for the international community to take a bigger part. Perhaps to recognize that these rebel groups need to be stopped in order to protect the civilan populaces and also so that order may be restored on some level. Either way this agreement surely is an important political step foward, although small it may set a path for further steps to begin.

Nigeria: Misplaced Power

There are still several countries in Africa who cannot provide sustainable electricity to the entire populace. An article covers,

Some $2.2bn-worth of Nigerian energy contracts were awarded without a bidding process by the former president and his energy minister, officials say. One was to a company with less than $200 of base capital at the time, a witness told a parliamentary committee. It is investigating why $16bn of investment in the energy sector during Olusegun Obasanjo's eight years in power failed to end power shortages.

As we can see somehow 16 billion dollars has been wrongly distributed throughout the state during Obasanjo's presidential term. Interesting enough we see that Olusegun Obasanjo still has a very influential role within his political party. I think this is an interesting story because we can draw connections from the internal political corruption in this country. I think Obasanjo distributed that 12 billion dollars to influential players throughout the state that could give him power later on. Although there is an investigation into how the funds were wasted, I doubt anyone would be able to convict a devious player such as Obansanjo. On a promising note, at least the issue was brought to light and was not covered up as much of the corruption in Africa is. I think this may signal a key political time in Nigeria in that perhaps the populace will begin to analyze where exactly there money is being spent and for what reasons. Perhaps this signals that some political corruption may be stopped at least for the short term.

China:Internal Unrest

After days of violence the Chinese government has given a deadline to protesters. A BBC article covers:

"The authorities in Tibet have given anti-Chinese demonstrators until Monday to surrender, following violence that officials say left 10 people dead. "

The protests are beginning to gain international attention as more reports come in of increased casualties. I think an interesting aspect of this event is to pay attention to how the world reacts politically. The Olympics are scheduled to take place in China, but it seems problems continue to spring up as time gets closer to the games start. I think countries around the world will be forced to downplay their own politically opinions due to the Olympics. China has some serious internal issues to clear up before it can host these Olympic games, but if the international community strikes out at China there may be future consequences. We will have to watch and see exactly how the international community reacts over the next few days as it may have a everlasting result on our future games.

Pakistan: Potential for Change

Where Pakistan stand today? An article highlights some recent developments:

"After a lull during Pakistan's elections, militants have reasserted themselves with a string of suicide blasts that have killed more than 90 people, including an army general and tribal leaders fed up with the violence. "

Suprisingly elections went more smoothly that most originally thought they would. However since the elections carnage has been spread by suicide bombers throughout the country. With these increased attacks, the newly elected parties now have a chance to show how well they can manage the situation.

"The parties of Bhutto and Sharif insist they are committed to
fighting extremism. Bhutto was assassinated on Dec. 27 in an attack that authorities have blamed on Islamic militants. Farhatullah Babar, a spokesman for her party, said it would not bow to attacks that were a deliberate attempt to destabilize and iscourage the democratic government that will soon be taking over. They are trying to nullify the results of the election."

While these parties may say they are ready to manage these terrorists many people wonder if the country will now plunge into chaos. As senior miliary officers are now targeted and have been actually killed, this signals a potential problem. If we further analyze these attacks it shows that terrorists are most likely gaining intelligence through sources and are targeting targets of higher value. This shows that the terrorists actually have a functioning network that is working rather than just targeting random people. I think this is a major concern for the elected government and its president. If the government cannot gain control of these suicide attacks this will lead to further instability of the country. The international community has witnessed several instances where riots have spewed throughout the nation before. If further riots ensue this could be a key time that the government could use to show whether it is capable of managing this country.

Kenya Update: Proper Solution?

President Mwai Kibaki, "the power-sharing deal would lay the foundations for peace and stability in our country." This comes after hundreds of people had been slain over elections that had the opposition to the newly elected president up in arms. To quell the riots that broke out, a prime minister role will be created for the opposition party. An article covers some details:

"More than 1,000 people have died and a half-million others were displaced after clashes erupted in the country previously considered one of Africa's most stable. Several pieces of legislation are required to implement the power-sharing deal, including a constitutional amendment to entrench several new positions. Under the deal, Odinga will move into the new post of prime minister, giving him the power to co-ordinate and supervise the government. After the proposed bills were introduced Thursday, debate was scheduled to begin Tuesday followed by a vote. If passed, the laws could be put in place that week."

As the international community now may see a potentially disastrous issue close we can begin to analyze the situation. Many observers feel that officials actually fueled the original riots that ensued, causing hundreds of deaths. I found this interesting because the opposition may have used the populace to make their own gains. Seeing that they had lost the election which many considered false, the opposition may have made a strategic move on their part, creating an internal problem that the government could not ignore. With what many considered a stable country, the riots were used as a tool to create a position to share power within the government. Of course the stop of riots and destruction within the country was a critical issue and needed to be solved. Perhaps the elections were false, but why was there no secondary elections announced? This would have easily solved the situation allowing a proper election to be conducted.

This obviously points to some critical issues within Kenya's government. Now we see government officials becoming corrupt to control their various stakes in the country. This country is dealing with a structure of government that seems to have a hold over it's populace as their voice is ignored. The international community did help to try and resolve the situation and now a solution has been created. I think this was an important development that the world should watch out for. The entire situation from the beginning of elections to now has shown how quickly a stable country can fall apart. While there is not much any outside actors can do, the international community should keep notice of developments such as Kenya's so that we may have a better basis on how to deal with a situation like this in the future.

Spain: Internal Security

General elections are beginning in Spain and some interesting developments may come about. These elections are the next interesting vote since when in 2004, as a BBC article covers, voters switched who controlled the government.

In 2004, voters turned out in high numbers - galvanised by the Madrid train bombings that killed 191 people three days earlier - to give Mr Zapatero a surprise victory over Mr Rajoy's conservative government.

The elections have even sprung some violence as the former Socialist councilor, Isaias Carrasco, was shot. As the blame has landed on Basque separatists, the event has tarnished the overall feeling for these elections. As the train bombings influenced the quick removal of Mr. Rajoy in 2004 hopefully no event will influence these elections.

The article also points out the faltering economy in Spain which has become the primary debate of the populace to consider for the elections. Much of the debate also points to the United States to blame for the economic slowdown in Spain. As it is difficult to pinpoint whether such an economic decline may be responsible from one country, according to another BBC article, inflation is at a 10 year high, with unemployment at an 8 year high. Seeing that these numbers indicate that Spain had been decreasing economically over a longer period of time indicates outside countries such as the US may not have been responsible.

I think some more interesting key ideas can be looked at here though, the new elections may reflect on international relations as well as how well the government of Spain will work with the European Union. As we see internal conflict in the country this may signal troubling signs that the government is having difficulty controlling radical individuals. I think this is a good time for the newly elected to focus on the internal security of Spain. The BBC article also points out an interesting fact:

"Spain accounts for well over a third of all EU immigration"

With high numbers of immigrants, security of the state may need to become a primary concern. As the Madrid bombings influenced the populace in the last vote, perhaps an overhaul of dealing with immigrants is needed. If a state cannot control the internal aspects of its society then the structures which function the overall government and its external dealings with the world will slowly break down that could create a destabilized country.

Israel: Al-Qaeda Advances

According to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, Al-Qaeda has now infiltrated Palestinian territory. An article from the Timesonline covers the situation:

"The charges are the most serious yet in the war of words between Mr Abbas, who controls the West Bank, and Hamas, whose Islamist guerrillas expelled his Fatah-dominated security force from the Gaza Strip last summer. “Al-Qaeda is present in Gaza and I’m convinced that they [Hamas] are their allies,” said Mr Abbas in an interview with al-Hayat, a London-based Arabic newspaper. “I can say without doubt that al-Qaeda is present in the Palestinian territories and that this presence, especially in Gaza, is facilitated by Hamas.” Israel has long accused al-Qaeda of infiltrating the Palestinian territories. The Israeli army’s intelligence chief said this week that more al-Qaeda members had entered the Gaza Strip after Hamas blew up the wall on the Egyptian border in January."

If this whole situation is valid then the Israeli government may have found itself in a new predicament. Hamas already has proven itself as a formidable foe against Israeli forces which are unable to quell the organization. If Al-Qaeda is now working with Hamas we are talking about the potential integration of ideas, tactics, strategy, personnel, and more. Hamas is well known for continuously launching rockets into Israeli territory and are seemingly unable to be destroyed. These new rocket attacks were recently covered by a BBC article:

"The Palestinian rocket fire is creeping slowly northwards in Israel, from Sderot just a mile from Gaza's border to Ashkelon 10km (six miles) away, as militants deploy better-manufactured and longer-range weapons."

So now we are seeing Hamas forces increasing tactical ranges of their rockets. Does this have any correlation with the intelligence reports of Al-Qaeda insurgents? Is this a demonstration of some traded information?

While it is unlikely Al-Qaeda has significantly improved the technological capabilities of Hamas, since the organization has been using the strategy of launching rockets for quite some time, they may be providing the funds or personnel to maintain these operations. With the recent bombing of the wall in the Gaza Strip allowing the border to Egypt to be crossed, many insurgents may have entered into Israel. I think Israel is facing a serious internal security situation. Now we are seeing the integration of two terrorist organizations allowing their networks to function together. Al-Qaeda has become a formidable foe on this "War on Terror," the organization continues to spread its ideologies and forces into new territories and spread worldwide. Any progress of Israel's internal security structure has now been significantly degraded. Countries surrounding Israel simply do not progressively attempt to counter insurgents. Israel has become the lone wolf in a region that is becoming increasing negative to such nations. With the public fallout from the short term conflict Israel encountered in Lebanon, the country will face difficult hurdles to work with. Israel needs to work with its neighbors to counter this insurgency movement and try to regain a respectable image with the international community. Al-Qaeda is surprisingly outdoing the most technologically advanced forces in the world with simple strategic and tactical strategies, Israel is just next on the list with on going internal conflicts with a terrorist group that is seemingly invincible to destroy.

Here is a link to this graphic, which also highlights an overview of terrorist organizations worldwide.

Kenya: Eye of the Storm?

At the end of December an election turned Kenya into a chaotic scene. President Mwai Kibaki was elected over opposition leader Raila Odinga in what was called a rigged election by the opposition. Deadly protests broke out across the country resulting in hundreds of deaths. An article from BBC covers the event:

"At least 1,500 people have been killed since the disputed presidential election in December, police say. Mr Kibaki claimed victory in the 27 December election, but Mr Odinga said the poll was rigged. The government and opposition are stalled on securing a power-sharing deal. "The talks have not broken down," Mr Annan said. "But I am taking steps to make sure we accelerate the process and give peace to the people as soon as possible. "The leaders have to assume their responsibilities and become directly engaged in these talks."

With talks delayed and no action from either side we may see this situation becoming strained in the next few days. The populace seems to be striking out at one another causing significant damage to the internal structure of Kenya.

With a potential crisis looming should some international actors step in? What exactly are the lines to be crossed that signals a need for help? The internal conflict here is catching news interests but is it really enough to push for some international deliberation. Leaders are only expressing their "concern" over the situation. Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has been negotiating with both sides but hasn't made much head way. Maybe it is time the United Nations started to set some more specific standards. Deploy some type of force to protect civilians in Kenya but make this force composed of equal manpower, funds, and equipment from all countries involved in addressing the issue at hand.


Talks of a Prime Minister role for the opposition party may have put a cap on this for a day or two but later this week I'm thinking we may see a crisis on a larger scale. With no international actors stepping up to protect the civilian populace more death may loom just around the corner.

Kosovo: Lets think about it

So what exactly is the big deal with this whole Kosovo thing? Most of us are probably thinking, "Oh great, another splinter country that the US can take care of." We've already seen how the Serbia's own populace is feeling, protesting in the streets and attacking embassies (namely our own). Also earlier this week border patrol posts were burned down in Northern Kosovo from upset Serbs. How bad is this situation looking? An article from BBC helps. Lets break down some different issues that may arise from this declaration of independence.

1. The legitimacy of the European Union. What are we talking about here? Well basically the EU has deployed a small force to help the Kosovar government stabilize through this transitional stage. Seems like the EU may be protecting it's own interests in this case. However, we've already seen how Russia is now backing Serbia in denouncing the declaration and fully supports Serbia. If Serbia decided to take Kosovo back using force, and Russia backed that force, the EU would have a serious situation on it's hands. The EU would have to deploy some kind of further military force to protect Kosovo in that case, but if they allowed Serbian and Russian forces to occupy Kosovo, the EU would lose much respect as a legitimate force in the region.

2. Russia vs. The West. Russia already has taken sides with Serbia on this issue. This is just adding to the division of countries, a majority of the EU and the US vs. Russia. Russia isn't as weak as it was ten years ago, the country is beginning to come back to life. With new economic deals through pipelines and countries relying on Russia to survive, this country has certainly increased its regional strength. No one wants another cold war and foreshadowing exactly what Russia plans to do with its future is difficult. With Putin stepping down soon, we will have to wait and watch how the new leader handles this regions problems.

3. Independence Trend. When Kosovo declared independence the world saw how most of the West supported the act. The EU has even placed personnel support within the country to help it survive. What if this has started a new trend? How many regions of the world have divisions that has caused the populace to want to break off to form a new country? Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia? the Kurds in Northern Iraq? Maybe since they can do it we can do it too. Today the countries don't need to be huge and powerful, all they really need is a grip on technology and the will to survive.

Turkey: Unnoticed Conflict

Another conflict has begun in the world but none of us are paying much attention. Well this conflict isn't exactly new but it has been ignited again as the winter in Northern Iraq has come to an end. For quite some time there has been an escalating clash between that of the Turkish military and the Kurds, more specifically the PKK (Kurdistan Worker's Party). Recently Turkish forces have launched "limited operations" into Northern Iraq advancing against several Kurdish camps. This is according to a BBC article.

Correspondents say the aim is to isolate rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, and to prevent them using northern Iraq as a launch-pad for attacks on Turkish soil. More than 30,000 people have been killed since the PKK began fighting for a Kurdish homeland in south-eastern Turkey in 1984. The US, the EU and Turkey consider the PKK to be a terrorist organisation.

So what does this mean for the region? Shouldn't the US be flustered having Iraqi territory crossed? The article reports that Iraqi officials were notified on late notice and expressed concern about the incursions. However, since the US supports Turkey there isn't much Iraqi or US forces can say about the situation. The US deems the PKK a terrorist organization and it has no reason to be against the situation. As the US audience is distracted at home with campaigning, there probably won't be much deliberation on this event. The US is most likely keeping political relations balanced by allowing the Turks to attack the PKK. Seeing this situation though lets us see that the region obviously has some issues to work out. If the US is against the PKK, why doesn't it target the group itself? Instead we see the Turkish government taking the reigns. With the winter snows melting in the region,we'll probably see an escalation in attacks from both sides. Over time the world will watch another conflict play out but for now it is just important to note that the situation warrants some notice and is something we should keep track of in a region of high flying tensions.

Venezuela: How to be a Kamikaze Dictator

Hugo Chavez has taken on Exxon Mobil, one of the largest company's of the world. The leader claims the company has teamed up with the United States to wage some type of "economic war" against Venezuela. Exxon Mobil won legal cases in international court against the state owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) because the monopoly had taken several assets that belonged to Exxon, and compensation was expected. An article from Stratfor breaks down the situation. The company had basically refused beforehand and now has several billion dollars frozen in assets by international court. Now Chavez has declared that he might cut oil production to the U.S. An excerpt from Stratfor indicates :

Approximately 90 percent of Venezuela’s 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in crude exports either goes to U.S. refineries that are explicitly designed to process Venezuela’s poorer grade of crude or is refined into products subsequently sold to the United States.

Obviously Chavez is making wild threats that he cannot sustain. What's important to notice here is that Venezuela has no real strategic hold over the U.S. The U.S. can easily find new resources or tap into national reserves if necessary. If Chavez does decide to cut oil exports to the U.S. this will be a clear sign that Venezuela will fall apart economically. So how exactly does Chavez plan to fix this economic blunder? An article from the economist gives some clues:

No important new deposits have been found since the president took office
in 1999. Officials admit that PDVSA is short of drilling rigs for exploration
(though Mr Chávez recently loaned two rigs to Ecuador). Much therefore hangs on the development of the Orinoco belt, with its estimated 250 billion barrels of heavy crude. But many of the companies recently invited (without competitive tender) to take part in these projects are state-owned outfits from countries, such as Iran and Belarus, whose governments are friends with Mr Chávez; most lack both the expertise and the financial muscle to develop them.

Chavez may be making friends abroad, but they aren't helping him in the near term. As the article indicates countries such as Iran frankly don't have the funds to develop projects half way around the globe. For now we will most likely continue to see Venezuela's dependence on the U.S. Without proper development and partners abroad, Chavez isn't going to be able to break any deals. Bottom line, If Venezuela finds itself breaching ties with the U.S. it would be in comparison to cutting their own oil filled wrists.

Pakistan: The tides of tension return

Pakistan again is seeing its own populace heading to the streets. New elections for Pakistan's lower parliament are set to start on Monday. Rampant rumors that the ballots will be rigged has caused rival parties to strike at each other. Many are concerned that we could see Pakistan fall into another chaotic state. The world last saw Pakistan fall into near chaos when former Prime Minister Bhutto was assassinated. The Pakistani government was able to gain control of the riots and destruction from the event but these elections are again fueling protests and could lead into riots. An article from BBC covers the event:

"Security is high in Pakistan as voters gear up for crucial parliamentary
elections overshadowed by violence and fears of rigging.
Monday's polls are set to end an era of military-led rule, but there are fears they could trigger further unrest.
The two major opposition parties say President
Pervez Musharraf's allies are planning massive fraud. They have vowed to
protest if they suspect foul play."

Whats important in this situation is that the government of Pakistan stays stable. It is crucial that some form of control is maintained to keep the security of it's military assets safe. Pakistan has used it's military force before to maintain control of it's populace before and I wouldn't be suprised to see it used again during the elections. Watching what happens in this country is critical when we think about the security of the entire region.

Kosovo: The Stage is Set

Finally the decision has been made, Kosovo has declared its independence. After months of debates and political strifes between various actors the country has made a final call. Of course now we all look to see what happens next. Already Serbia has called the declaration illegal with Russia denouncing Kosovo as well. What is important to watch now is how Russia and Serbia will react to the situation. What kind of solutions are these countries prepared to execute? Kosovo does have a United Nations force of 17,000 troops if that helps at all. I doubt that Russia or Serbia would commit military action but I see that the economic structures throughout the region may became severely strained as every country takes a side. We shall see this week exactly how the world reacts.

Iran: Can’t touch this

Until a short time ago many watched how tensions continued to rise between the Iran and the West, namely with the U.S. Many became concerned Iran was next on the U.S. hit list, however something happened to circumvent this development. The U.S. released the NIE or National Intelligence Estimate which basically chronicled how Iran was not currently developing nuclear weapons. This development became the brake pedal for America, but did not convince other countries. Why this NIE was actually released is still up for debate though. Was the U.S. looking for a way out of a conflict? Was there international concern about an impending conflict? Whichever the case the U.S. has taken a sidestep to the situation.

Frankly this most likely helps our position in the Middle East when we think about how we are already pinned down in Iraq. There is discussion about the limits our military can handle and to some it is obvious a conflict with Iran would throw us overboard. An article from The Economist helps us understand some of the situation:

"It doesn't take a fevered brain to assume that if Iran's
ayatollahs get their hands on the bomb, the world could be in for some nasty
surprises. Iran's claim that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful is
widely disbelieved. That is why Russia and China joined America, Britain, France
and Germany at the UN Security Council to try to stop Iran enriching uranium.
Until two months ago they seemed ready to support a third and tougher sanctions
resolution against Iran. But then America's spies spoke out, and since then five
painstaking years of diplomacy have abruptly unravelled (see article).

The intelligence debacle over Iraq has made spies anxious about how their findings are used. That may be why they and the White House felt it right to admit, in a National Intelligence Estimate in December, that they now think Iran halted clandestine work on nuclear
warheads five years ago. As it happens, this belief is not yet shared by Israel
or some of America's European allies, who see the same data."

Why does the international community not punish Iran more strickly? Well if we look at the situation, there really isn’t a good case against Iran right now tangibly wise. There is no hard evidence that the international community can start a fire on. While its widely perceived Iran probably isn’t innocent it is difficult to continue accusations with the U.S. backing down. Iran certainly is up to no good and the results of nuclear technology in the Middle East could spawn a new era of war. The U.S. can't always be the front runner and the global community needs to step up efforts in watching key countries more closely. For now all we can do is keep track and wait for more incentive to punish such a country.

Kosovo: Do I declare Independence now or later?

The debate still isn't over, is Kosovo going to declare it's independence? The international community has been watching for months as countries squabble over whether they support the region's ideas of declaring independence. Prime Minister Hashim Thaci of Kosovo has spoken out that the declaration of independence will happen in quite a shorter amount of time, perhaps only weeks. This is putting pressure on both sides as we see a divide between Kosovo's supporters, namely the U.S. and a majority of the European Union against Russia's power of veto in the U.N. and of course Serbia. With the power to veto on the UNSC (United Nations Security Council) Russia has found a way to divert support to the Kosovar movement. George Friedman of Stratfor.com puts together a synopsis of the situation starting from the 1999 bombings that helps to break down the history.

"The United States and Europe appear committed to making Kosovo, now a province of Serbia, an independent state. Of course, Serbia opposes this, but more important, so does Russia. Russia opposed the original conflict, but at that point it was weak and its wishes were irrelevant. Russia opposes independence for Kosovo now, and it is far from the weak state it was in 1999 — and is not likely to take this quietly. Kosovo’s potential as a flash point between Russia and the West makes it important again. Let’s therefore review the action to this point.

In 1999, NATO, led by the United States, conducted a 60-day bombing campaign against Yugoslavia and its main component, Serbia. The issue was the charge that Yugoslavia was sponsoring the mass murder of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, just as it had against Bosnian Muslims. The campaign aimed to force the Yugoslav army out of Kosovo while allowing a NATO force to occupy and administer the province"

After we review the past situation we begin to see how Kosovo has become an issue that could trigger a wide variety of reactions. How far will Russia go in keeping Kosovo part of Serbia? What kind of reaction is the E.U. willing to take to counter Russia's moves? This simply isn't an issue the world can avoid forever, eventually a move is going to be made and although the situation has seemed deadlocked a recent development may have just changed the tide. The E.U. has surprisingly managed to work together and has tasked a force to be deployed to Kosovo. Although the purpose of this force is to support Kosovo, the force seems loose ended. Here's an excerpt from Stratfor.com convering the new deployment.

"The European Union is in the final stages of putting together a force of 1,800 police and judicial professionals to send to the renegade Serbian province of Kosovo.

Serbia and its ally, Russia, are dead-set against the deployment, seeing it as a thinly veiled effort to remove the issue from the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) — where Russia wields a veto — and set the stage for full Kosovar independence."

I for one have only guesses to what will happen. This force deployment would surely cause reactions by Russia and Serbia, exactly what those may be is still up for opinion. A majority of countries support Kosovo's independence although there lies the problem. Who is prepared to clean up the mess that may be potentially spilled around the region? It will have to be cleaned up by someone. While eventually I think Kosovo will declare independence, there is surely going to be some problems between Russian interests and the Wests. Either way, with the prime minister pushing for independence in the coming weeks, we shall see how the world will deal with what happens.