Thursday, February 14, 2008

Iran: Can’t touch this


Until a short time ago many watched how tensions continued to rise between the Iran and the West, namely with the U.S. Many became concerned Iran was next on the U.S. hit list, however something happened to circumvent this development. The U.S. released the NIE or National Intelligence Estimate which basically chronicled how Iran was not currently developing nuclear weapons. This development became the brake pedal for America, but did not convince other countries. Why this NIE was actually released is still up for debate though. Was the U.S. looking for a way out of a conflict? Was there international concern about an impending conflict? Whichever the case the U.S. has taken a sidestep to the situation.

Frankly this most likely helps our position in the Middle East when we think about how we are already pinned down in Iraq. There is discussion about the limits our military can handle and to some it is obvious a conflict with Iran would throw us overboard. An article from The Economist helps us understand some of the situation:

"It doesn't take a fevered brain to assume that if Iran's
ayatollahs get their hands on the bomb, the world could be in for some nasty
surprises. Iran's claim that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful is
widely disbelieved. That is why Russia and China joined America, Britain, France
and Germany at the UN Security Council to try to stop Iran enriching uranium.
Until two months ago they seemed ready to support a third and tougher sanctions
resolution against Iran. But then America's spies spoke out, and since then five
painstaking years of diplomacy have abruptly unravelled (see
article).



The intelligence debacle over Iraq has made spies anxious about how their findings are used. That may be why they and the White House felt it right to admit, in a National Intelligence Estimate in December, that they now think Iran halted clandestine work on nuclear
warheads five years ago. As it happens, this belief is not yet shared by Israel
or some of America's European allies, who see the same data."



Why does the international community not punish Iran more strickly? Well if we look at the situation, there really isn’t a good case against Iran right now tangibly wise. There is no hard evidence that the international community can start a fire on. While its widely perceived Iran probably isn’t innocent it is difficult to continue accusations with the U.S. backing down. Iran certainly is up to no good and the results of nuclear technology in the Middle East could spawn a new era of war. The U.S. can't always be the front runner and the global community needs to step up efforts in watching key countries more closely. For now all we can do is keep track and wait for more incentive to punish such a country.

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