Israel: Al-Qaeda Advances

According to Mahmoud Abbas, the Palestinian President, Al-Qaeda has now infiltrated Palestinian territory. An article from the Timesonline covers the situation:

"The charges are the most serious yet in the war of words between Mr Abbas, who controls the West Bank, and Hamas, whose Islamist guerrillas expelled his Fatah-dominated security force from the Gaza Strip last summer. “Al-Qaeda is present in Gaza and I’m convinced that they [Hamas] are their allies,” said Mr Abbas in an interview with al-Hayat, a London-based Arabic newspaper. “I can say without doubt that al-Qaeda is present in the Palestinian territories and that this presence, especially in Gaza, is facilitated by Hamas.” Israel has long accused al-Qaeda of infiltrating the Palestinian territories. The Israeli army’s intelligence chief said this week that more al-Qaeda members had entered the Gaza Strip after Hamas blew up the wall on the Egyptian border in January."

If this whole situation is valid then the Israeli government may have found itself in a new predicament. Hamas already has proven itself as a formidable foe against Israeli forces which are unable to quell the organization. If Al-Qaeda is now working with Hamas we are talking about the potential integration of ideas, tactics, strategy, personnel, and more. Hamas is well known for continuously launching rockets into Israeli territory and are seemingly unable to be destroyed. These new rocket attacks were recently covered by a BBC article:

"The Palestinian rocket fire is creeping slowly northwards in Israel, from Sderot just a mile from Gaza's border to Ashkelon 10km (six miles) away, as militants deploy better-manufactured and longer-range weapons."

So now we are seeing Hamas forces increasing tactical ranges of their rockets. Does this have any correlation with the intelligence reports of Al-Qaeda insurgents? Is this a demonstration of some traded information?

While it is unlikely Al-Qaeda has significantly improved the technological capabilities of Hamas, since the organization has been using the strategy of launching rockets for quite some time, they may be providing the funds or personnel to maintain these operations. With the recent bombing of the wall in the Gaza Strip allowing the border to Egypt to be crossed, many insurgents may have entered into Israel. I think Israel is facing a serious internal security situation. Now we are seeing the integration of two terrorist organizations allowing their networks to function together. Al-Qaeda has become a formidable foe on this "War on Terror," the organization continues to spread its ideologies and forces into new territories and spread worldwide. Any progress of Israel's internal security structure has now been significantly degraded. Countries surrounding Israel simply do not progressively attempt to counter insurgents. Israel has become the lone wolf in a region that is becoming increasing negative to such nations. With the public fallout from the short term conflict Israel encountered in Lebanon, the country will face difficult hurdles to work with. Israel needs to work with its neighbors to counter this insurgency movement and try to regain a respectable image with the international community. Al-Qaeda is surprisingly outdoing the most technologically advanced forces in the world with simple strategic and tactical strategies, Israel is just next on the list with on going internal conflicts with a terrorist group that is seemingly invincible to destroy.

Here is a link to this graphic, which also highlights an overview of terrorist organizations worldwide.

Kenya: Eye of the Storm?

At the end of December an election turned Kenya into a chaotic scene. President Mwai Kibaki was elected over opposition leader Raila Odinga in what was called a rigged election by the opposition. Deadly protests broke out across the country resulting in hundreds of deaths. An article from BBC covers the event:

"At least 1,500 people have been killed since the disputed presidential election in December, police say. Mr Kibaki claimed victory in the 27 December election, but Mr Odinga said the poll was rigged. The government and opposition are stalled on securing a power-sharing deal. "The talks have not broken down," Mr Annan said. "But I am taking steps to make sure we accelerate the process and give peace to the people as soon as possible. "The leaders have to assume their responsibilities and become directly engaged in these talks."

With talks delayed and no action from either side we may see this situation becoming strained in the next few days. The populace seems to be striking out at one another causing significant damage to the internal structure of Kenya.

With a potential crisis looming should some international actors step in? What exactly are the lines to be crossed that signals a need for help? The internal conflict here is catching news interests but is it really enough to push for some international deliberation. Leaders are only expressing their "concern" over the situation. Former United Nations Secretary General Kofi Annan has been negotiating with both sides but hasn't made much head way. Maybe it is time the United Nations started to set some more specific standards. Deploy some type of force to protect civilians in Kenya but make this force composed of equal manpower, funds, and equipment from all countries involved in addressing the issue at hand.


Talks of a Prime Minister role for the opposition party may have put a cap on this for a day or two but later this week I'm thinking we may see a crisis on a larger scale. With no international actors stepping up to protect the civilian populace more death may loom just around the corner.

Kosovo: Lets think about it

So what exactly is the big deal with this whole Kosovo thing? Most of us are probably thinking, "Oh great, another splinter country that the US can take care of." We've already seen how the Serbia's own populace is feeling, protesting in the streets and attacking embassies (namely our own). Also earlier this week border patrol posts were burned down in Northern Kosovo from upset Serbs. How bad is this situation looking? An article from BBC helps. Lets break down some different issues that may arise from this declaration of independence.

1. The legitimacy of the European Union. What are we talking about here? Well basically the EU has deployed a small force to help the Kosovar government stabilize through this transitional stage. Seems like the EU may be protecting it's own interests in this case. However, we've already seen how Russia is now backing Serbia in denouncing the declaration and fully supports Serbia. If Serbia decided to take Kosovo back using force, and Russia backed that force, the EU would have a serious situation on it's hands. The EU would have to deploy some kind of further military force to protect Kosovo in that case, but if they allowed Serbian and Russian forces to occupy Kosovo, the EU would lose much respect as a legitimate force in the region.

2. Russia vs. The West. Russia already has taken sides with Serbia on this issue. This is just adding to the division of countries, a majority of the EU and the US vs. Russia. Russia isn't as weak as it was ten years ago, the country is beginning to come back to life. With new economic deals through pipelines and countries relying on Russia to survive, this country has certainly increased its regional strength. No one wants another cold war and foreshadowing exactly what Russia plans to do with its future is difficult. With Putin stepping down soon, we will have to wait and watch how the new leader handles this regions problems.

3. Independence Trend. When Kosovo declared independence the world saw how most of the West supported the act. The EU has even placed personnel support within the country to help it survive. What if this has started a new trend? How many regions of the world have divisions that has caused the populace to want to break off to form a new country? Abkhazia and South Ossetia in Georgia? the Kurds in Northern Iraq? Maybe since they can do it we can do it too. Today the countries don't need to be huge and powerful, all they really need is a grip on technology and the will to survive.

Turkey: Unnoticed Conflict

Another conflict has begun in the world but none of us are paying much attention. Well this conflict isn't exactly new but it has been ignited again as the winter in Northern Iraq has come to an end. For quite some time there has been an escalating clash between that of the Turkish military and the Kurds, more specifically the PKK (Kurdistan Worker's Party). Recently Turkish forces have launched "limited operations" into Northern Iraq advancing against several Kurdish camps. This is according to a BBC article.

Correspondents say the aim is to isolate rebels of the Kurdistan Workers' Party, PKK, and to prevent them using northern Iraq as a launch-pad for attacks on Turkish soil. More than 30,000 people have been killed since the PKK began fighting for a Kurdish homeland in south-eastern Turkey in 1984. The US, the EU and Turkey consider the PKK to be a terrorist organisation.

So what does this mean for the region? Shouldn't the US be flustered having Iraqi territory crossed? The article reports that Iraqi officials were notified on late notice and expressed concern about the incursions. However, since the US supports Turkey there isn't much Iraqi or US forces can say about the situation. The US deems the PKK a terrorist organization and it has no reason to be against the situation. As the US audience is distracted at home with campaigning, there probably won't be much deliberation on this event. The US is most likely keeping political relations balanced by allowing the Turks to attack the PKK. Seeing this situation though lets us see that the region obviously has some issues to work out. If the US is against the PKK, why doesn't it target the group itself? Instead we see the Turkish government taking the reigns. With the winter snows melting in the region,we'll probably see an escalation in attacks from both sides. Over time the world will watch another conflict play out but for now it is just important to note that the situation warrants some notice and is something we should keep track of in a region of high flying tensions.

Venezuela: How to be a Kamikaze Dictator

Hugo Chavez has taken on Exxon Mobil, one of the largest company's of the world. The leader claims the company has teamed up with the United States to wage some type of "economic war" against Venezuela. Exxon Mobil won legal cases in international court against the state owned Petroleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) because the monopoly had taken several assets that belonged to Exxon, and compensation was expected. An article from Stratfor breaks down the situation. The company had basically refused beforehand and now has several billion dollars frozen in assets by international court. Now Chavez has declared that he might cut oil production to the U.S. An excerpt from Stratfor indicates :

Approximately 90 percent of Venezuela’s 2 million barrels per day (bpd) in crude exports either goes to U.S. refineries that are explicitly designed to process Venezuela’s poorer grade of crude or is refined into products subsequently sold to the United States.

Obviously Chavez is making wild threats that he cannot sustain. What's important to notice here is that Venezuela has no real strategic hold over the U.S. The U.S. can easily find new resources or tap into national reserves if necessary. If Chavez does decide to cut oil exports to the U.S. this will be a clear sign that Venezuela will fall apart economically. So how exactly does Chavez plan to fix this economic blunder? An article from the economist gives some clues:

No important new deposits have been found since the president took office
in 1999. Officials admit that PDVSA is short of drilling rigs for exploration
(though Mr Chávez recently loaned two rigs to Ecuador). Much therefore hangs on the development of the Orinoco belt, with its estimated 250 billion barrels of heavy crude. But many of the companies recently invited (without competitive tender) to take part in these projects are state-owned outfits from countries, such as Iran and Belarus, whose governments are friends with Mr Chávez; most lack both the expertise and the financial muscle to develop them.

Chavez may be making friends abroad, but they aren't helping him in the near term. As the article indicates countries such as Iran frankly don't have the funds to develop projects half way around the globe. For now we will most likely continue to see Venezuela's dependence on the U.S. Without proper development and partners abroad, Chavez isn't going to be able to break any deals. Bottom line, If Venezuela finds itself breaching ties with the U.S. it would be in comparison to cutting their own oil filled wrists.

Pakistan: The tides of tension return

Pakistan again is seeing its own populace heading to the streets. New elections for Pakistan's lower parliament are set to start on Monday. Rampant rumors that the ballots will be rigged has caused rival parties to strike at each other. Many are concerned that we could see Pakistan fall into another chaotic state. The world last saw Pakistan fall into near chaos when former Prime Minister Bhutto was assassinated. The Pakistani government was able to gain control of the riots and destruction from the event but these elections are again fueling protests and could lead into riots. An article from BBC covers the event:

"Security is high in Pakistan as voters gear up for crucial parliamentary
elections overshadowed by violence and fears of rigging.
Monday's polls are set to end an era of military-led rule, but there are fears they could trigger further unrest.
The two major opposition parties say President
Pervez Musharraf's allies are planning massive fraud. They have vowed to
protest if they suspect foul play."

Whats important in this situation is that the government of Pakistan stays stable. It is crucial that some form of control is maintained to keep the security of it's military assets safe. Pakistan has used it's military force before to maintain control of it's populace before and I wouldn't be suprised to see it used again during the elections. Watching what happens in this country is critical when we think about the security of the entire region.

Kosovo: The Stage is Set

Finally the decision has been made, Kosovo has declared its independence. After months of debates and political strifes between various actors the country has made a final call. Of course now we all look to see what happens next. Already Serbia has called the declaration illegal with Russia denouncing Kosovo as well. What is important to watch now is how Russia and Serbia will react to the situation. What kind of solutions are these countries prepared to execute? Kosovo does have a United Nations force of 17,000 troops if that helps at all. I doubt that Russia or Serbia would commit military action but I see that the economic structures throughout the region may became severely strained as every country takes a side. We shall see this week exactly how the world reacts.

Iran: Can’t touch this

Until a short time ago many watched how tensions continued to rise between the Iran and the West, namely with the U.S. Many became concerned Iran was next on the U.S. hit list, however something happened to circumvent this development. The U.S. released the NIE or National Intelligence Estimate which basically chronicled how Iran was not currently developing nuclear weapons. This development became the brake pedal for America, but did not convince other countries. Why this NIE was actually released is still up for debate though. Was the U.S. looking for a way out of a conflict? Was there international concern about an impending conflict? Whichever the case the U.S. has taken a sidestep to the situation.

Frankly this most likely helps our position in the Middle East when we think about how we are already pinned down in Iraq. There is discussion about the limits our military can handle and to some it is obvious a conflict with Iran would throw us overboard. An article from The Economist helps us understand some of the situation:

"It doesn't take a fevered brain to assume that if Iran's
ayatollahs get their hands on the bomb, the world could be in for some nasty
surprises. Iran's claim that its nuclear programme is entirely peaceful is
widely disbelieved. That is why Russia and China joined America, Britain, France
and Germany at the UN Security Council to try to stop Iran enriching uranium.
Until two months ago they seemed ready to support a third and tougher sanctions
resolution against Iran. But then America's spies spoke out, and since then five
painstaking years of diplomacy have abruptly unravelled (see article).

The intelligence debacle over Iraq has made spies anxious about how their findings are used. That may be why they and the White House felt it right to admit, in a National Intelligence Estimate in December, that they now think Iran halted clandestine work on nuclear
warheads five years ago. As it happens, this belief is not yet shared by Israel
or some of America's European allies, who see the same data."

Why does the international community not punish Iran more strickly? Well if we look at the situation, there really isn’t a good case against Iran right now tangibly wise. There is no hard evidence that the international community can start a fire on. While its widely perceived Iran probably isn’t innocent it is difficult to continue accusations with the U.S. backing down. Iran certainly is up to no good and the results of nuclear technology in the Middle East could spawn a new era of war. The U.S. can't always be the front runner and the global community needs to step up efforts in watching key countries more closely. For now all we can do is keep track and wait for more incentive to punish such a country.

Kosovo: Do I declare Independence now or later?

The debate still isn't over, is Kosovo going to declare it's independence? The international community has been watching for months as countries squabble over whether they support the region's ideas of declaring independence. Prime Minister Hashim Thaci of Kosovo has spoken out that the declaration of independence will happen in quite a shorter amount of time, perhaps only weeks. This is putting pressure on both sides as we see a divide between Kosovo's supporters, namely the U.S. and a majority of the European Union against Russia's power of veto in the U.N. and of course Serbia. With the power to veto on the UNSC (United Nations Security Council) Russia has found a way to divert support to the Kosovar movement. George Friedman of Stratfor.com puts together a synopsis of the situation starting from the 1999 bombings that helps to break down the history.

"The United States and Europe appear committed to making Kosovo, now a province of Serbia, an independent state. Of course, Serbia opposes this, but more important, so does Russia. Russia opposed the original conflict, but at that point it was weak and its wishes were irrelevant. Russia opposes independence for Kosovo now, and it is far from the weak state it was in 1999 — and is not likely to take this quietly. Kosovo’s potential as a flash point between Russia and the West makes it important again. Let’s therefore review the action to this point.

In 1999, NATO, led by the United States, conducted a 60-day bombing campaign against Yugoslavia and its main component, Serbia. The issue was the charge that Yugoslavia was sponsoring the mass murder of ethnic Albanians in Kosovo, just as it had against Bosnian Muslims. The campaign aimed to force the Yugoslav army out of Kosovo while allowing a NATO force to occupy and administer the province"

After we review the past situation we begin to see how Kosovo has become an issue that could trigger a wide variety of reactions. How far will Russia go in keeping Kosovo part of Serbia? What kind of reaction is the E.U. willing to take to counter Russia's moves? This simply isn't an issue the world can avoid forever, eventually a move is going to be made and although the situation has seemed deadlocked a recent development may have just changed the tide. The E.U. has surprisingly managed to work together and has tasked a force to be deployed to Kosovo. Although the purpose of this force is to support Kosovo, the force seems loose ended. Here's an excerpt from Stratfor.com convering the new deployment.

"The European Union is in the final stages of putting together a force of 1,800 police and judicial professionals to send to the renegade Serbian province of Kosovo.

Serbia and its ally, Russia, are dead-set against the deployment, seeing it as a thinly veiled effort to remove the issue from the U.N. Security Council (UNSC) — where Russia wields a veto — and set the stage for full Kosovar independence."

I for one have only guesses to what will happen. This force deployment would surely cause reactions by Russia and Serbia, exactly what those may be is still up for opinion. A majority of countries support Kosovo's independence although there lies the problem. Who is prepared to clean up the mess that may be potentially spilled around the region? It will have to be cleaned up by someone. While eventually I think Kosovo will declare independence, there is surely going to be some problems between Russian interests and the Wests. Either way, with the prime minister pushing for independence in the coming weeks, we shall see how the world will deal with what happens.